Is the WASP calculation in cricket logically correct?

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WASP is an acronym for "Winning and Scoring Predictor". It is a statistic developed by a University of Canterbury PhD graduate Scott Brooker. It has been a feature of Sky Sports in New Zealand for some time. A lot of Indian cricket fans came across it today for the first time during the 1st ODI between India and New Zealand.

Definition: WASP is a feature of limited overs matches only.

In the first innings of a limited overs match, it works as a scoring predictor. For example, if WASP says 278 at a particular stage of a first innings, it is predicting that the team will score 278 at the end of the innings, if it gets completed. In the second innings, it works as a winning predictor. For example, if WASP says 67% during a match's second innings, it means that the team batting second has a 67% chance of winning the match.
The aspect which sets it apart from most statistical predictors is that it also takes into account pitch conditions, based on historical data of...
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WASP (Winning And Score Predictor) is a calculation tool used in cricket to predict scores and possible results of a match. It does not just take the match situation into the equation but also factors like the ease of scoring on the day according to the pitch, weather and boundary size. It gives the prediction of the final total in the first innings, and the probability of the chasing team winning in the second innings. Predictions are based on the average team playing against the average team in those conditions.[1] The models are based on a database of all non-shortened ODI and 20–20 games played between top-eight countries since late 2006 (slightly further back for 20–20 games). The first-innings model estimates the additional runs likely to be scored as a function of the number of balls and wickets remaining. The second innings model estimates the probability of winning as a function of balls and wickets remaining, runs scored to date, and the target score. Projected score or...

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For several decades we have seen projected scores displayed by the sports channel while watching cricket but Sky Sports has offered a completely new system of projecting scores and the winner in the form of WASP. During the first ODI between India and New Zealand viewers were highly fascinated by WASP and then a highly engaging discussion caught up on twitter which made the hashtag #WASP become a trending topic for an entire day. While half of the twitter population was wondering what the term means, the other half was busy giving the answers.

1. What WASP really means?

Winning And Score Prediction abbreviated as WASP is an algorithm of projecting the total score during the first inning and the probability of the batting team being victorious during the second inning.WASP involves more of calculation and less of prediction of which team is going to win the match. It involves several factors such the past performances of the teams. The system also takes...

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Any number of new metrics can be introduced to predict the winning percentages.

A very basic metric would be to use the extrapolation of the current run-rate of the chasing team to determine the winning percentage. Another metric would be to calculate the current form(average of the batsmen-to-come over the past N games(or N months)) and use it to find a projected score. Based on this, one could probably calculate another winning percentage metric. We could add more variables to the mix, such as bowling strike rate, batting strike rate, average score at that stadium, average score by that team in that particular country, and so on.

Even if I added a few more variables to WASP account for a person's form, it would still be incomplete, since it doesn't account for his overseas form/home form, pitch conditions, his mental state and so on.

The point is that at the end of the day, WASP is just yet another metric to make a guess of the probable winning percentage and...

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If you are looking at the complete explanation of that rule I came across nice blog that clears all the doubts regarding working of WASP.

To illustrate, in the first innings model to calculate the expected additional runs when a given number of balls and wickets remain, we could just average the additional runs scored in all matches when that situation arose. This would work fine for situations that have arisen a lot such as 1 wicket down after 10 overs, or 5 wickets down after 40 overs, etc.), but for rare situations like 5 wickets down after 10 overs or 1 wicket down after 40 it would be problematic, partly because of a lack of precision when sample sizes are small but more importantly because those rare situations will be overpopulated with games where there was a mismatch in skills between the two teams. Instead, what we do is estimate the expected runs and the probability of a wicket falling on the next ball only. Let V(b,w) be the expected additional runs...

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Winning and Score Predictor (WASP) is a calculation tool used in cricket to predict scores and possible results of a limited overs match, e.g. One Day and Twenty 20 matches.

The prediction is based upon factors like the ease of scoring on the day according to the pitch, weather and boundary size. For the team batting first, it gives the prediction of the final total. For the team batting second, it gives the probability of the chasing team winning, although it does not just take the match situation into the equation. Predictions are based on the average team playing against the average team in those conditions.[1]

The models are based on a database of all non-shortened One Day International (ODI) matches and Twenty20 games played between top-eight countries since late 2006 (slightly further back for Twenty20 games). The batting-first model estimates the additional runs likely to be scored as a function of the number of balls and wickets remaining. The batting-second...

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For years while watching limited overs cricket, we have seen projected scores at different intervals being displayed on our television screens. But in the New Zealand vs India match today, we saw something different in the form of WASP (Winning and Score Prediction). Here, we have a look to differentiate between the two and explain what WASP brings to the table.

Projected scores are completely based on runs scored and looking at different totals at the end of an innings, using various run rates. For example, if a team’s score is 200 at the end of 40 overs. There could be four variations of projected scores:

Current run-rate: 250 6 per over: 260 8 per over: 280 10 per over: 300

Such projections do not bring in the quality of the bowling team, it doesn’t bring in the equation of wickets left and many other parameters into the picture. The only thing it is concerned with is the run rate at which the batting team is going at. In addition, projected scores are...

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[UPDATE: January 2015. The post below dates from November 2012 when New Zealand's Sky TV first introduced the WASP in coverage of domestic limited overs cricket. For fans coming here as a result of its being used in the current NZ v SL series, please see

here

for an FAQ. For an explanation of what cricket has to do with Economics, see

here

; and for all the cricket posts on

Offsetting Behaviour,

see

here

.]

In their coverage of the Wellington-Auckland game in the HRV cup last Friday, Sky Sport introduced WASP—the “winning and score predictor” for use in limited-overs games, either 50-over or 20-20 format. In the first innings, the WASP gives a predicted score. In the second innings, it gives a probability of the batting team winning the match.

I am very happy about this as it is based on research by my former doctoral student, Scott Brooker, and me. Not surprisingly, the commentators didn’t go into any details about the way the predictions...

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As the WASP got trending after the India-New Zealand first One-Day International (ODI) at Napier, Abhijit Banare gives a brief insight about WASP, why it is interesting and why it is just limited to being a good watch on television.

The first One-Day International (ODI) between India and New Zealand grabbed a lot of attention for a little statistic which kept changing on the right side of the score tab of the television. The Winning and Score Predictor (WASP) is a new statistical tool to predict the outcome of a match. This tool will be used only for ODI and T20 matches. The WASP uses past records of the teams to predict the total score of the team batting first and then predicts the chances of winning for the team batting second.

Who founded it:

The WASP technique is an outcome of a research from University of Canterbury (UC) Phd Graduate Dr Scott Brooker and his supervisor Dr Seamus Hogan. The duo has explained some of the functioning in their research for UC...

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There's been a lot of talk on television, twitter and cricket betting forums about the cricket prediction tool WASP recently so I thought I'd give some thoughts on the subject.

I've read far more about WASP than is probably good for me and will start by saying the guys who've developed it are smart, know way more about stats than I ever will, and have made a useful, if stepping stone, contribution to the modelling of cricket. I doff my cap at their work.

I'll also say from the outset though that I more or less ignore it and would expect any competent cricket trader to profit handsomely if allowed to bet against its predictions.

I don't use the tool as the basis for any bets and will go as far as saying I wouldn't use WASP to place bets with your money, let alone mine - unless I was self-matching your bets!

But I'm getting ahead of myself. And being more than a little unfair. Let's take a proper look at WASP.

What is WASP

WASP stands for...

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Sky Sports had a new gimmick in its T20 coverage this evening, the WASP percentage, which it kept wheeling out on the bottom bar (which is increasingly resembling the flight deck controls of a quad-engined airliner).

What’s the WASP percentage, you ask? We had no idea, only that it seemed to go down a bit as Ian Bell flailed and missed a ball. Was it perhaps the Weight Analysis of Samit Patel, adjusted ball by ball as Samit worked his way through a packet of crisps, sat on the sofa watching the game? Was it the Willow Accoutrement Smashing Potential, a real-time assessment of the overall state, composition and moisture levels of the batsman’s bat, trying to work out whether it’ll crack in two if he tries the Dhoni helicopter shot? Or maybe it was just a rough calculation of what proportion of the overweight, slightly sunburnt and increasingly drunk middle-aged men in the crowd were currently in danger of having a yellow-and-black buzzing insect land in their pint?

...

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